Here's my World Cup futures. (also posted this in my thread.) Nothing real shocking here that others haven't predicted throughout the Internet. I've grouped them by units played. My thought process is this:
--Germany, Brazil and France are rightful favorites. If everything goes to plan, Germany has the easiest road, with Brazil and France on the other side of the bracket. I'm concerned about Brazil, however. They have a tendency to choke in group stages, and if they finish second would face a group-winning Germany in the first round. Finally, if that happens, then France has the easy path to the finals.
--I like England, Belgium and Colombia as longshots. England and Belgium should cruise through their group, which also includes Tunisia and Panama. One of those teams will get Colombia and the other Group H advancing country. I am hoping to have two of these three countries in the quarterfinals, and then can hedge against them if necessary.
--I like Morocco, Peru, Iceland and Costa Rica as live dogs to advance to the knockout stage. Peru (Group C) and Iceland (Group D) have the best chances. Peru is a team on the rise that played very well through qualifying. Iceland is somehow media darlings yet still underrated. Morocco could sneak past perennially overrated Portugal if the Portuguese are still looking back at a loss to Spain. Costa Rica has the best goalie in Keylor Navas and a group that includes the methodical Swiss and Serbia (chances to win 1-0) and the chokeable Brazil.
--Playing Peru, Morocco and Iceland to go over point totals, coinciding with my thought that they advance. They could not advance and still hit the point totals. Panama can beat Tunisia; I think at +150 I'll get better odds here than once they play in the final match of the group stage.
5 units
Colombia O4.5 points -160
Iceland O2.5 points -105
4 units
Germany advances to quarterfinals -210
Peru O3.5 points -105
3 units
France to win +645
Morocco O2.5 points -135
2 units
Brazil to win +415
Germany to advance to semifinals +107
Peru to advance to knockout +153
Iceland to advance to knockout +295
Panama O1.5 points +150
1 unit
England to win +1695
Belgium to win +1095
Colombia to win +4490
Morocco to advance to knockout +320
Costa Rica to advance to knockout +395